Workshop 09: Very short-term forecasting of wind power

Joint IEA Wind Task 32 and Task 36 Workshop on

Very short-term forecasting of wind power

June 12-13 2018

Workshop leaders: Ines Würth (U. Stuttgart), Laura Valldecabres (U. Oldenburg), Elliot Simon (DTU Wind Energy), Mike Courtney (DTU Wind Energy)

Venue: Niels Bohr Auditorium, DTU Risø Campus, Roskilde, Denmark

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Summary

Due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy power systems into the grid, the demand for short-term wind power forecasting increases, as grid operators need to ensure grid stability in spite of the highly fluctuating power sources. As state of the art forecasting techniques using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models do not cover forecasting horizons in the minute range, different approaches have to be carried out. These techniques include statistical approaches, the use of remote sensing devices such as lidar or radar and also the use of turbine data information from surrounding wind parks.

The goal of this workshop therefore was to:

  • Enable an exchange of experience in very short-term forecasting techniques
  • Create links between the potential users and the researchers
  • Come up with a definition of the forecasting horizon of “very short-term” and discuss which forecasting horizon is of interest now and in the future
  • Provide a list of barriers and possible solutions to the adoption of very short-term forecasting

Photos by SWE and DTU

Meeting Documents

Public documents

Presentations

Most of the following documents are included in the Workshop 09 library, below. For items marked with an asterisk (*), please contact the author directly.

Welcome and Introduction

  • Ines Würth – Introduction to Workshop

Where are we with very short-term forecasting?

  • David Schlipf – Introduction to Task 32
  • Gregor Giebel – Introduction to Task 36

Experiences with very short-term forecasting Part 1 Scada Data

  • Ciaran Gilbert – Very high resolution forecasts using a nested LES system*
  • Christopher Bay – Wind Direction Consensus and Forecasting for Improved Wind Farm Operation*
  • Harley Mackenzie – Short term forecasting of wind power plant generation for system stability and provision of ancillary services
  • Bahri Uzunoğlu – Maximum likelihood ensemble filter SCADA data assimilation for wind farms for very short-term forecasting*
  • Valentin Perruci, Gabriel Dantas – An operational forecasting tool using different approaches – results from the HPC4E EU project and the EOLIPREV Brazilian project

Experiences with very short-term forecasting Part 2 Lidar & Radar

  • Anamaria Sirghie – Lidar based short term forecast for offshore wind
  • John Zack – Intra-hour wind ramp forecasting in Hawaii using scanning lidar*
  • Corinna Möhrlen – Can Lidars replace met masts in real-time system operation: results from a study for the Irish TSOs
  • Laura Valldecabres – Very short-term probabilistic forecast of offshore wind power using dual-Doppler radar*
  • Elliot Simon – Results from a time series/online learning approach using scanning lidar inflow measurementss

Looking over the horizon: Experiences with remote sensing devices

  • Thomas Schmidt – Short term solar forecasting from sky imaging, up to 30 min*
  • Ines Würth – How far can we see? Analysis of the measurement range of long-range lidar data for short-term forecasting

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